Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Download or read book Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus written by Karel Musil and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.