Are Currency Crises Predictable?

Download or read book Are Currency Crises Predictable? written by Mr.Ilan Goldfajn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-12-01 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.