FOUR PROJECTS: PREDICTION AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON

Download or read book FOUR PROJECTS: PREDICTION AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON written by Vivian Siahaan and published by BALIGE PUBLISHING. This book was released on 2022-05-25 with total page 612 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: PROJECT 1: GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON The challenge of this project is to accurately predict the future adjusted closing price of Gold ETF across a given period of time in the future. The problem is a regression problem, because the output value which is the adjusted closing price in this project is continuous value. Data for this study is collected from November 18th 2011 to January 1st 2019 from various sources. The data has 1718 rows in total and 80 columns in total. Data for attributes, such as Oil Price, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, Dow Jones Index US Bond rates (10 years), Euro USD exchange rates, prices of precious metals Silver and Platinum and other metals such as Palladium and Rhodium, prices of US Dollar Index, Eldorado Gold Corporation and Gold Miners ETF were gathered. The dataset has 1718 rows in total and 80 columns in total. Data for attributes, such as Oil Price, Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, Dow Jones Index US Bond rates (10 years), Euro USD exchange rates, prices of precious metals Silver and Platinum and other metals such as Palladium and Rhodium, prices of US Dollar Index, Eldorado Gold Corporation and Gold Miners ETF were gathered. To perform forecasting based on regression adjusted closing price of gold, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. The machine learning models used predict gold daily returns as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, MLP classifier, and Extra Trees classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, and scalability of the model. PROJECT 2: WIND POWER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON Renewable energy remains one of the most important topics for a sustainable future. Wind, being a perennial source of power, could be utilized to satisfy our power requirements. With the rise of wind farms, wind power forecasting would prove to be quite useful. It contains various weather, turbine and rotor features. Data has been recorded from January 2018 till March 2020. Readings have been recorded at a 10-minute interval. A longterm wind forecasting technique is thus required. The attributes in the dataset are as follows: ActivePower, AmbientTemperature, BearingShaftTemperature, Blade1PitchAngle, Blade2PitchAngle, Blade3PitchAngle, ControlBoxTemperature, GearboxBearingTemperature, GearboxOilTemperature, GeneratorRP, GeneratorWinding1Temperature, GeneratorWinding2Temperature, HubTemperature, MainBoxTemperature, NacellePosition, ReactivePower, RotorRPM, TurbineStatus, WTG, WindDirection, and WindSpeed. To perform forecasting based on regression active power, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. To perform clustering, you will use K-Means algorithm. The machine learning models used predict categorized active power as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 3: MACHINE LEARNING FOR CONCRETE COMPRESSIVE STRENGTH ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON Concrete is the most important material in civil engineering. The concrete compressive strength is a highly nonlinear function of age and ingredients. These ingredients include cement, blast furnace slag, fly ash, water, superplasticizer, coarse aggregate, and fine aggregate. The actual concrete compressive strength (MPa) for a given mixture under a specific age (days) was determined from laboratory. This dataset is in raw form (not scaled). There are 1030 observations, 9 attributes, 8 quantitative input variables, and 1 quantitative output variable in dataset. The attributes in the dataset are as follows: Cement (component 1); Blast Furnace Slag (component 2); Fly Ash (component 3); Water (component 4); Superplasticizer (component 5); Coarse Aggregate; Fine Aggregate (component 7); Age; and Concrete compressive strength. To perform regression on concrete compressive strength, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. To perform clustering, you will use K-Means algorithm. The machine learning models used predict clusters as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 4: DATA SCIENCE FOR SALES ANALYSIS, FORECASTING, CLUSTERING, AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON The dataset used in this project is from Walmart which is a renowned retail corporation that operates a chain of hypermarkets. Walmart has provided a data combining of 45 stores including store information and monthly sales. The data is provided on weekly basis. Walmart tries to find the impact of holidays on the sales of store. For which it has included four holidays’ weeks into the dataset which are Christmas, Thanksgiving, Super bowl, Labor Day. In this project, you are going to analyze, forecast weekly sales, perform clustering, and predict the resulting clusters. The dataset covers sales from 2010-02-05 to 2012-11-01. Following are the attributes in the dataset: Store - the store number; Date - the week of sales; Weekly_Sales - sales for the given store; Holiday_Flag - whether the week is a special holiday week 1 – Holiday week 0 – Non-holiday week; Temperature - Temperature on the day of sale; Fuel_Price - Cost of fuel in the region; CPI – Prevailing consumer price index; and Unemployment - Prevailing unemployment rate. To perform regression on weekly sales, you will use: Linear Regression, Random Forest regression, Decision Tree regression, Support Vector Machine regression, Naïve Bayes regression, K-Nearest Neighbor regression, Adaboost regression, Gradient Boosting regression, Extreme Gradient Boosting regression, Light Gradient Boosting regression, Catboost regression, and MLP regression. To perform clustering, you will use K-Means algorithm. The machine learning models used predict clusters as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor classifier, Random Forest classifier, Naive Bayes classifier, Logistic Regression classifier, Decision Tree classifier, Support Vector Machine classifier, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting classifier, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy.