Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors

Download or read book Global Warming Forecast using Acceleration Factors written by Joseph Nowarski and published by Joseph Nowarski. This book was released on 2022-06-06 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication introduces four methods to forecast the global surface temperature over land and ocean (global warming). The methods include a parabolic trendline of the last 61 years of global warming and cumulated CO2 emissions. Two other methods apply the velocity and the acceleration of global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions. The relation between the global surface temperature change and the change in the cumulative CO2 emissions was determined in previous publications as 0.000745°C/GtCO2. The average result from all four methods for the business as usual CO2 mitigation scenario is 4.4°C (4.1°C -5.0°C). According to this forecast, the global temperature change will reach 1.5°C in 2031 (9 years from now) and 2.0°C in 2047 (25 years from now).