The Use of Physically Based Models and Ensemble Forecasting for Storm Surge Risk Assessment in a Changing Climate

Download or read book The Use of Physically Based Models and Ensemble Forecasting for Storm Surge Risk Assessment in a Changing Climate written by Jeane Buban Camelo and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study also showed that at the end of the century, hurricanes may produce larger surge magnitudes in concentrated areas as opposed to surges that are lower in magnitude and widespread. One notable finding of this study is that there is no single storm property that dictates the magnitude of surge inundation. Even when these properties are considered together, the results are still difficult to anticipate without explicit numerical simulation. Due to dynamic hurricane properties, storm surge risk communication has been challenging. Despite communication changes from the National Hurricane Center, we have found that there is a lingering association between the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) and storm surge risk by the general public. However, findings suggest that although improving communication can indeed improve risk perception, it only addresses one component of a multidisciplinary system that defines storm surge risk. To be truly effective, resilience efforts will require multidisciplinary approaches.